Iranian Diplomatic Offensive Driven by Regime Survival Concerns

June 23, 2025 1730 (UPDATED 2130)

Executive Summary

In response to successive U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear and domestic security infrastructure, Iran has mounted an intensive diplomatic campaign—led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi—to forestall further attacks and safeguard the regime’s continuity. Between June 20 and 23, Araqchi traveled from Geneva and Istanbul to Moscow, where he secured Russia’s unequivocal condemnation of the strikes and reaffirmed Tehran’s “old, strategic” partnership with Moscow. He then held calls with France and Italy, denouncing the U.S. assault as a violation of the UN Charter and the NPT, and demanding clear European opposition.

Conscious that continued military pressure—now extending to sites such as Evin Prison, Tharallah Headquarters, and Basij and Internal security facilities—could severely weaken state institutions, Tehran has simultaneously pursued outreach to Gulf Shia communities and restrained its proxies from immediate retaliation.

This calibrated combination of high-level diplomatic engagement, public invocation of international law, her controlled retaliation - launching missiles at the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar following prior notification to both the US and Qatar - and restraint of proxy militant forces reveals Iran's paramount concern: that uncontrolled escalation could undermine the regime's fundamental power base and pose an existential threat to its continued existence.

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In the wake of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has launched a diplomatic campaign to rally international condemnation and prevent further escalation. As part of this effort, Araqchi held a high-level meeting in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 23, where he expressed gratitude for Russia’s strong stance against the attacks and emphasized the strategic ties between the two countries. The urgency of Araqchi’s visit increased significantly following American airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities shortly before his arrival.

Araqchi’s visit to Russia follows diplomatic stops in Geneva and Istanbul, part of Tehran’s broader diplomatic offensive to rally international support following the Israeli and subsequent American attack against Iran's nuclear program.

Araqchi thanked Russia for its “strong and accurate” stance, calling Moscow “on the right side of history and international law.” He also delivered personal greetings from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Massoud Pezeshkian to the Russian president.

Iran -Russia - strategic ties

Araqchi described the regional atmosphere as “dangerous” and emphasized that his meeting with Putin was taking place at a critical juncture. Araqchi lauded the "strategic," "close and old" relationship between Tehran and Moscow, as well as their “continuous consultations.”

He highlighted Russia’s central role in Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, noting its participation in past talks with world powers and its technical partnership with Iran in the construction of nuclear facilities, most notably the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Russia is currently aiding Iran in building two additional reactors in the exact location.

Simultaneously, Araqchi engaged in phone calls with the foreign ministers of France and Italy. In a call with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, Araqchi condemned the U.S. assault as a grave breach of international norms and warned that silence or inaction by other nations would have far-reaching consequences. Barrot expressed regret over the incident, denied any French involvement, and called for continued dialogue between Iran and the European Union.

Araqchi : Silence or inaction would have far-reaching consequences

In a separate call with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, Araqchi criticized European governments for their muted responses and urged the EU to take a clear stance. He reaffirmed Iran’s right to defend itself under international law. Tajani, echoing France’s position, voiced concern over rising regional tensions and urged all sides to return to diplomacy.

Iran is continuing an intensive diplomatic effort aimed at halting further attacks against it, driven by growing concerns that sustained strikes—especially the most recent ones targeting domestic security infrastructure (such as Evin Prison, Tharallah Headquarters in Tehran, and Basij and Interior Ministry facilities)—could significantly weaken the regime and threaten its survival.

Tharallah headquarters in ruins after an Israeli airstrike

Earlier, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi held meetings in Istanbul with Arab and Islamic leaders as part of Iran's broader diplomatic strategy to de-escalate the conflict. Simultaneously, Iran has launched a targeted outreach campaign toward Shia populations in the Gulf and across the broader Muslim world to mobilize public pressure against the United States.

Iran's carefully balanced approach—combining high-level diplomacy, public appeals to international law, a measured military response (notably Iran’s missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid base in Qatar after prior notification), and strict control over proxy forces—underscores Tehran’s core fear: that an unchecked, full-scale U.S. intervention would erode the regime’s power foundations, hasten its collapse, and threaten its very survival.