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Iran’s Priority: Regime Survival at Any Cost
Coercion, Control, and Deterrence: Iran’s Strategy to Withstand Internal Unrest and External Threats
13 hours ago9 min read
Tehran’s Containment Strategy: Managing Domestic Unrest and Deterring a U.S./Israeli Strike
Iran is threatening regional escalation to deter a U.S./Israeli strike, warning neighbors they will be treated as combatants.
At home, it is crushing protests via a total blackout and framing unrest as foreign terrorism to justify repression.
Jan 146 min read
Tehran Signals Escalating Repression Despite US Warning Lines
The regime’s priority is survival: it is likely to intensify coercion while managing optics and blame to reduce the risk of a US-Israel intervention trigger.
Jan 117 min read
Rasht Erupts: Night of Fire, Mass Protest, and Deadly Crackdown
From Chants to Confrontation: Rasht’s Escalation May Mark a New Phase in the Ongoing Protest Movement.
Jan 103 min read
Iran Protest: Regime Delegitimization and Crackdown Preparations
Iran’s media has branded protesters as foreign-backed terrorists to justify a crackdown. Tehran’s prosecutor is invoking moharebeh (a death-eligible charge)
Jan 95 min read
Iran’s No-Compromise Response to Protests and Implications for Israel
The Iranian regime will not hesitate to apply maximum coercive power to suppress the protest
Jan 67 min read
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