Tehran executes a high-stakes "Chicken Maneuver," betting that aggressive maritime threats and strategic resolve will force Washington into a favorable, "deal-oriented" retreat. Despite claims of victory over January’s "fitna," renewed university protests and President Trump’s lingering promises continue to challenge the regime's grasp on internal stability

Iran’s leadership is framing Netanyahu’s U.S. talks—especially meetings with Trump—as a deliberate pressure play, while signaling an effort to drive a wedge between Washington and Jerusalem. In parallel, Tehran pairs renewed confrontation messaging (missiles/retaliation threats) with rigid red lines in U.S. talks and intensified domestic containment to pre-empt protest momentum.

Unmasking the survival strategy behind Iran's latest wave of blunt threats. While missiles are simulated in the Gulf, a diplomatic "Chicken Game" is unfolding in Ankara to redraw the map of the Middle East.

Iran is framing the EU’s IRGC terrorist designation as grounds for reciprocal legal and operational retaliation, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz and suspension of key security cooperation. As U.S. forces surge into the region, Tehran is compressing decision-time and signaling readiness for rapid kinetic escalation through “total war” rhetoric and mohareb-style delegitimization of Western and Israeli leadership.

Tehran is openly defying Washington with “fingers on the trigger” deterrence messaging and retaliatory threats that increasingly implicate Israel. Simultaneously, it is escalating repression—executions, forced-confession narratives, and sustained internet disruption—to crush protests at any cost.

The SAS (سازمان اطلاعات سپاه) has launched a multi-dimensional "hybrid" crackdown focused on digital infiltration, cognitive manipulation, and the use of double agents to dismantle protest networks.

Coercion, Control, and Deterrence: Iran’s Strategy to Withstand Internal Unrest and External Threats

Iran is threatening regional escalation to deter a U.S./Israeli strike, warning neighbors they will be treated as combatants. At home, it is crushing protests via a total blackout and framing unrest as foreign terrorism to justify repression.

The regime’s priority is survival: it is likely to intensify coercion while managing optics and blame to reduce the risk of a US-Israel intervention trigger.

Iran’s media has branded protesters as foreign-backed terrorists to justify a crackdown. Tehran’s prosecutor is invoking moharebeh (a death-eligible charge)

The Iranian regime will not hesitate to apply maximum coercive power to suppress the protest

Iran refuses Hezbollah disarmament, viewing its weapons as vital for Lebanon’s defense and regional anti-Israel strategy.

Houthi Missiles, Iranian Signatures: A Rising Threat to Israel, the U.S., and Global Trade Routes

Iran’s “Internal Debate” Is a Strategic Illusion Aimed at Preserving the Regime’s Revolutionary Trajectory

Iran blames Israel for abducting four diplomats in 1982, and demands international action to uncover their fate.

Kayhan: Iran Declares War on the U.S. and Israel, Targets Trump and Netanyahu by Name

IRGC Declaration Summarizing the 12-Day War: Expelling America from the Region and Destroying the Zionist Regime"

Iran lost top missile commander and 35 air defense personnel in Israeli strikes

System Under Siege: Can the Islamic Republic Survive the Dual Pressure?

Ultra-hardline concerns about the current government's regional foreign policy