Iran - Weekly Update - Iran Dares Washington

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tehran is signaling high confidence and escalation control: senior officials frame any US military action as the start of war, and publicly expand retaliatory scope to include Israel (Tel Aviv), US bases, and regional “enablers.”

Diplomacy is being run in parallel with deterrence: Iranian officials reiterate that they will not negotiate “under threat,” while emphasizing active outreach to regional and extra-regional interlocutors to prevent a strike.

·Domestically, the regime continues to fuse protest suppression with counter-intelligence framing: arrests and prosecutions are packaged as “spy/terror” cases, enabling accelerated judicial processes and harsher penalties.

Information control remains a central internal-security tool: extended internet disruptions are acknowledged by Iranian economic and Information and Communications Technology (ICT) actors as materially damaging, yet persist as a coercive containment measure.

Ideological consolidation is being re-activated: regime-aligned outlets amplify messianic and national-religious messaging (e.g., ‘Mahdi Jan Iran’ / #Who_is_mahdi) to compete with protest narratives and reinforce cohesion.

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January 29

Tehran is projecting open defiance toward Washington—“fingers on the trigger” messaging, symbolic carrier-focused propaganda, and explicit retaliatory threats that increasingly point toward Israel as a central arena. In parallel, the regime is intensifying coercive internal control—executions, forced-confession narratives, and sustained internet disruption—to crush protests at any cost while framing unrest as foreign-directed “hybrid war.”

Military Posture and Deterrence: Responses to the "US Armada"

The arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Groups has prompted a series of high-level warnings from Iranian military leadership:

• Abbas Araghchi (Foreign Minister): In a Wall Street Journal op-ed on January 27, 2026, Araghchi warned that if attacked, Tehran would be "firing back with everything we have… An all-out confrontation will certainly be ferocious and drag on far, far longer than the fantasy timelines that Israel and its proxies are trying to peddle to the White House,”. Araghchi wrote on his "x" account:  Our brave Armed Forces are prepared-with their fingers on the trigger to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air, and sea. He dismissed the possibility of "negotiations under threat," emphasizing that the Iranian military is prepared for an "instant and painful" response.

FM: Armed Forces are prepared, with their fingers on the trigger

• Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour (Commander of IRGC Ground Forces): On January 19, 2026, Pakpour declared that his forces are at the highest level of readiness with "fingers on the trigger," specifically noting that any regional base used by the U.S. to launch strikes would be considered a primary target.

  
  

• IRGC spokesperson Brig. Gen. Naeini characterized carrier deployments as an “old tool” of intimidation and claimed that the “military option” has failed, citing lessons from the “12-day war.”

  
  

• Ali Shamkhani (Senior Advisor to the Supreme Leader): On January 19, rejected the notion of a “limited strike,” warning that any US military action—“from any origin and at any level”—would be treated as the beginning of war and met with an immediate, comprehensive response; his message explicitly referenced targeting “the heart of Tel Aviv” and all supporters of the aggressor.

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• The IRGC-affiliated Javan featured a caricature of Donald Trump as a scarecrow atop the USS Abraham Lincoln, claiming "40 Fast Boats Surrounded the Lincoln" to signal that the U.S. is a "paper tiger." The newspaper Hamshahri labeled President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu as "Mohareb" (an enemy of God, a crime punishable by death). The front page of the newspaper Farheekhtegan features a prominent image of a U.S. aircraft carrier, the deck of which is entirely covered with coffins draped in American flags. Part of a broader "Symbolic Defiance and Deterrence Signaling" effort. Similar to other IRGC-affiliated media. All suggesting that t any military engagement with Iran will result in significant U.S. casualties

  
  
  
  

  

  
  

  Domestic Suppression: MOIS and SAS Operations;   The "Mossad Agent" Narrative and Executions

  
  

The Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) and the IRGC Intelligence Organization (SAS) have initiated a systematic "terrorization" of the domestic population. The Iranian regime has enhanced its strategy to label civil dissidents as foreign intelligence operatives. This allows the judiciary to bypass standard legal protections and issue rapid death sentences for "Moharebeh" (enmity against God) and "Espionage."

• Forced Confessions: State-controlled media (e.g., Tasnim and Fars News) have broadcast at least 167 forced confessions since the start of January. Detainees are forced to admit to receiving technical support from the Mossad to coordinate "riots." The SAS (IRGC Intelligence) has ramped up the production of staged confession films. Individuals are featured claiming they were recruited by foreign intelligence to conduct "urban warfare". Semnan Provincial Intelligence Office Announcement: The Semnan Provincial Intelligence Office announced the detention of more than 80 main field operatives and destructive mercenaries linked to the recent unrest in January (Dey month), who were involved in damaging public and private property.

  
  

• Execution of Hamidreza Sabet Esmailipour (January 28, 2026): In a move that drew widespread international condemnation, the regime executed 23-year-old Hamidreza Sabet Esmailipour. He was accused of being a "principal agent" of the Mossad. The MOIS claimed he provided GPS coordinates of sensitive missile sites in Isfahan to Israeli handlers. His execution is seen as a message to protesters that dissent is synonymous with treason.

  

  "Mossad Agent"

  
  

• DefaPress circulated content asserting MEK-linked directives for arson and targeted killings, paired with a detainee “admission” narrative. This appears designed to harden public acceptance for broad ‘terror’ prosecutions and to de-legitimize protest activity as armed subversion

• Casualty and Execution Data: While the regime's Supreme Council of National Security (SNSC) officially acknowledged 3,117 deaths on January 21, international NGOs and human rights groups report a far more catastrophic toll. HRANA updated its verified death counts on January 28, documenting 6,373 adult protesters and  113 minors killed, with some estimates reaching as high as 17,091

  
  

The "Hybrid War" Propaganda and Digital Siege

The regime's propaganda apparatus is working to de-legitimize the protest movement by framing it as a foreign intelligence operation.

• Mossad Accusations: Senior officials, including Ali Larijani, have labeled protesters as "urban terrorist cells" trained by foreign agencies. This is coupled with the “Who is Mahdi” campaign, designed to foster religious cohesion and frame the regime's survival as a spiritual necessity against "global arrogance."

  
  

• Economic Paralysis: The nationwide internet blackout (active since Jan 8) is costing the Iranian economy approximately $36 million daily. The Minister of Communications admitted on January 28 that the blackout has crippled the digital economy and critical infrastructure, preventing vital security updates and border documentation.

  
  

The regime's decision to maintain draconian internet restrictions is backfiring economically while being used as a tool for social control.

• Global Access Limitations: According to the Chairman of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, merchants are restricted to only 20 minutes of daily internet access for international trade

• , described as inadequate even for basic email checks

  
  

• Economic Losses: The "Digital Blackout" is causing massive financial damage. International monitors confirm that economic losses pile up as the regime maintains these restrictions.

  
  

• Cyber Warfare: The IRGC's Cyber Council is actively managing a "Cyber System" to counter what it describes as Israeli-led "Hybrid War"(https://t.me/defapress_ir/47716)].

Regional Diplomacy: Turkey and Qatar's Mediation

Mediation efforts are reaching a fever pitch as regional powers fear being caught in the crossfire. Tehran is engaged in an intensive diplomatic campaign to prevent a direct military strike by coordinating with regional neighbors. Senior Advisor Ali Larijani is leading a diplomatic outreach to regional partners to manage the current crisis.

• Turkey’s Stance: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has repeatedly called for dialogue, warning that a U.S. strike would create power vacuums and destabilize the Middle East. Ankara is particularly concerned about the collapse of the Iranian state, which could lead to regional anarchy.

  
  

• Qatar’s Mediation: Majed al-Ansari (Qatar Foreign Ministry Spokesperson) confirmed that Qatar is using its channels to communicate with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff to find a diplomatic de-escalation, though Tehran continues to publicly reject any "negotiations under threat." Active contacts with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are underway to establish a unified regional stance against external intervention.

  
  

• Iran’s MFA spokesperson argued that negotiating with an actor that has assumed “war posture” is inherently contradictory; he emphasized that Iran has pursued diplomacy in practice, but that if war is imposed, Iran must defend itself with full capability and will deliver a ‘regret-inducing’ response. Iran’s UN mission messaging (as carried by DefaPress) rejected and condemned what it called Trump’s “warmongering statements,” describing threats of force as a violation of the UN Charter and part of a broader pattern of intimidation and destabilization

  
  

  Axis of Resistance: Multi-Front Threat Analysis

Iran’s proxies have signaled their readiness to intervene if Iran is struck:

• Iraq (Kataib Hezbollah): On January 16, 2026, Abu Talib al-Saidi declared that "American bases in the region will not be immune from our missiles and drones." He emphasized that, unlike previous conflicts, the group would not remain neutral.

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• Yemen (Houthis): Following the buildup, the Houthis released footage of maritime attacks with the caption "Soon," threatening to resume the blockade of the Red Sea.

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• Lebanon (Hezbollah): Naim Qassem stated on January 18 that any direct attack on the Supreme Leader would be considered a declaration of war against the entire "Axis of Resistance....A war against Iran this time would ignite the entire region; Iran has stood by us for 43 years, and the legitimacy of our struggle to liberate the land remains absolute."

Hezbollah : war against Iran this time would ignite the entire region

Assessment and Outlook

The Iranian regime appears resolved to face a direct confrontation rather than yield to domestic or international pressure. We assess that:

1. The regime is using a dual strategy of Regional Diplomacy (to avoid external war) and Maximum Domestic Terror (to crush the internal uprising). The "Mohareb" label for foreign leaders and the constant threat of "fingers on the trigger" signal that Tehran is prepared for a high-stakes escalation.

   
   

2. Intentional Escalation: To validate its "Hybrid War" narrative, the regime is likely to orchestrate or provoke an event involving Israel. This would allow Tehran to frame the protests as an act of national defense rather than a struggle for civil rights.

   
   

3. State Deterioration: The combination of a 60% inflation rate and the massive economic losses from the internet blackout indicates the regime is prioritizing short-term survival through force over long-term stability.

4. Regional "Ring of Fire": Any U.S. strike will likely trigger a simultaneous response from Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, aiming to overwhelm regional air defenses and draw Israel into a protracted conflict.