The Iranian leadership is signaling a “maximum deterrence” posture in response to “maximum pressure.”

Unmasking the survival strategy behind Iran's latest wave of blunt threats. While missiles are simulated in the Gulf, a diplomatic "Chicken Game" is unfolding in Ankara to redraw the map of the Middle East.

Iran is framing the EU’s IRGC terrorist designation as grounds for reciprocal legal and operational retaliation, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz and suspension of key security cooperation. As U.S. forces surge into the region, Tehran is compressing decision-time and signaling readiness for rapid kinetic escalation through “total war” rhetoric and mohareb-style delegitimization of Western and Israeli leadership.

Tehran is openly defying Washington with “fingers on the trigger” deterrence messaging and retaliatory threats that increasingly implicate Israel. Simultaneously, it is escalating repression—executions, forced-confession narratives, and sustained internet disruption—to crush protests at any cost.

The SAS (سازمان اطلاعات سپاه) has launched a multi-dimensional "hybrid" crackdown focused on digital infiltration, cognitive manipulation, and the use of double agents to dismantle protest networks.

Coercion, Control, and Deterrence: Iran’s Strategy to Withstand Internal Unrest and External Threats

Iran is threatening regional escalation to deter a U.S./Israeli strike, warning neighbors they will be treated as combatants. At home, it is crushing protests via a total blackout and framing unrest as foreign terrorism to justify repression.

The regime’s priority is survival: it is likely to intensify coercion while managing optics and blame to reduce the risk of a US-Israel intervention trigger.

From Chants to Confrontation: Rasht’s Escalation May Mark a New Phase in the Ongoing Protest Movement.

Iran’s media has branded protesters as foreign-backed terrorists to justify a crackdown. Tehran’s prosecutor is invoking moharebeh (a death-eligible charge)