Iran's Multi-Theater Retaliation and What It Means for Israel
- 6 days ago
- 12 min read
March 3, 2026
Since the launch of Operation Epic\Operation Roaring LionFury on February 28, 2026, Iran's diplomatic campaign has operated on a single, laser-focused objective: to drive a wedge between Washington and Jerusalem by persuading the American public that their soldiers are dying not for U.S. national interests, but for Israel. This is not reactive messaging - it is a calculated strategic doctrine, designed and delivered by Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who has emerged as Tehran's primary crisis manager and chief propagandist in the current conflict.
Larijani's central argument is deceptively simple but politically potent. He has publicly declared that President Trump's signature pledge - "America First" - has in practice become "Israel First," accusing the administration of subordinating American lives and treasure to Israeli strategic interests. The formulation is not accidental. It is precision-engineered to resonate with the isolationist and MAGA constituencies that form the core of Trump's political base- the very voters most likely to question the cost of military entanglement in the Middle East. By appropriating Trump's own slogan and inverting it, Larijani has constructed a rhetorical trap: every American casualty in the theater becomes, in Tehran's narrative, evidence that the President has betrayed his own doctrine.
This messaging is amplified by a deliberate atrocity narrative. Iranian state channels have elevated the alleged destruction of Gandhi Hospital and the bombing of the Minab elementary school - where over 160 students reportedly died - as centerpieces of a broader campaign to frame the U.S.–Israel coalition as an occupying, civilian-killing force. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has simultaneously mobilized the UN Security Council and the IAEA, invoking Article 51 of the UN Charter to assert Iran's right to self-defense and demanding international accountability for strikes on Natanz and other nuclear sites. The legal and moral arguments are secondary; their true function is to generate international noise that amplifies domestic opposition to the war in America.
Larijani has been equally unambiguous on the question of negotiations. He has flatly declared that Iran "will not negotiate with the United States" while under military pressure, dismissing U.S. dialogue overtures as "delusional." This posture serves a dual purpose: domestically, it projects strength and defiance in the face of military losses; internationally, it signals to Washington that there is no easy off-ramp — raising the political cost of continued escalation for an administration already facing scrutiny over American casualties.
On the military front, "Operation True Promise 4" has expanded well beyond a bilateral exchange between Iran and Israel. By March 2, the IRGC announced eleven consecutive waves of retaliatory strikes, claiming the deployment of over 700 drones and hundreds of missiles across the theater. The IRGC has formally claimed a direct hit on the Israeli Prime Minister's Office using Khyber (Khorramshahr-4) ballistic missiles.
Iranian retaliatory operations have deliberately targeted Western diplomatic and military infrastructure across the region, extending the conflict well beyond conventional military theaters: the U.S. Embassy compound in Kuwait; Iraqi Kurdistan, and Iranian aerial attacks targeted the U.S. Consulate General in Erbil alongside Erbil International Airport. U.S. officials confirmed that the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia was also struck by Iranian drones. In Abu Dhabi, debris from an intercepted Iranian drone damaged the Etihad Towers complex, which houses the Israeli embassy. On the British front, UK bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Cyprus were all attacked by Iranian forces, prompting the RAF to deploy in a defensive capacity — the first direct Iranian engagement of British military assets in this war. Taken together, the targeting of U.S. diplomatic compounds and British installations signals Tehran's deliberate strategy to broaden the conflict's Western footprint, raising the political cost for both Washington and London while generating additional pressure on the coalition's cohesion.
The geographic scope of Iranian strikes extends across the entire U.S. regional military footprint. The U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, and Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE have all been targeted. In Bahrain, an Iranian drone struck the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Manama, injuring U.S. personnel, while IRGC missiles hit the area surrounding the Fifth Fleet headquarters. Critically, Iran also struck the King Fahd Causeway, the strategic bridge linking Bahrain to Saudi Arabia, in a move designed to simultaneously sever Bahrain's physical connection to its principal regional ally and to signal to Riyadh that no part of the Gulf is beyond Tehran's reach. Alongside these kinetic strikes, Iranian intelligence is reportedly activating Shia sleeper cells within Bahrain to generate domestic unrest, creating a two-front pressure campaign against the kingdom.
The energy infrastructure campaign has been equally aggressive. The Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia - one of the world's largest - was forced into precautionary shutdown following an Iranian drone strike. LNG facilities in Qatar were struck, driving European gas prices up by nearly 50%. Jebel Ali Port in the UAE sustained damage, causing a power outage at a major Amazon Web Services data center. In Kuwait, shrapnel from intercepted missiles damaged a major oil refinery, while drone strikes hit Kuwait International Airport. These are not random targets: they represent a deliberate effort to impose collective economic pain on the Gulf states hosting U.S. forces, testing the durability of the coalition.
Iran's naval losses have been severe. U.S. Navy cruise missiles struck Bandar Abbas Naval Base on March 2, setting the IRINS Makran - a converted oil tanker serving as Iran's premier forward base ship - ablaze at her berth. Satellite imagery indicates IRIS Sahand, IRIS Sabalan, and IRIS Zagros were also sunk or heavily damaged in the same strikes. CENTCOM separately confirmed the sinking of a Jamaran-class corvette at Chah Bahar during the opening phase of the operation. President Trump declared that ten Iranian ships had been eliminated in total. In a parallel development, Iran for the first time deployed an uncrewed surface vehicle to attack the commercial tanker MKD VYOM off the coast of Muscat - signaling that Tehran is expanding its maritime warfare toolkit even as its conventional naval capacity collapses.
The Strait of Hormuz closure, formally announced by IRGC Brigadier General Sardar Ebrahim Jabbari, carries consequences that cut in multiple directions simultaneously. Globally, the closure threatens approximately 20% of the world's oil trade, driving Brent crude prices sharply higher. For the Gulf states, it paralyzes their own hydrocarbon export revenues - creating a shared economic wound that, paradoxically, deepens their alignment with Israel against a common aggressor. For Iran itself, the closure is a high-risk gambit: it threatens the country's 25-year cooperation agreement with China, its primary economic lifeline, and inflicts symmetric damage on an Iranian economy already reeling from the rial's devaluation, industrial rationing, and bazaar protests.
For Israel, the broader pattern of this conflict presents a rare strategic opening. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar have all sustained direct Iranian military strikes on their territory and infrastructure. The Saudi response to the King Fahd Causeway attack is particularly significant - Riyadh is likely to read it as a direct assault on national sovereignty, potentially accelerating a shift toward overt security coordination with Jerusalem. Israel's demonstrated intelligence and air superiority throughout the campaign positions it credibly as the region's most capable security partner. The systematic dismantling of IRGC command infrastructure, missile bases, and naval assets reduces Iranian power projection in ways that serve Gulf interests as directly as they serve Israeli ones.
The central challenge for Israel is sustaining U.S. political support long enough to consolidate these gains. Larijani's "Israel First" doctrine is not merely propaganda - it is a serious attempt to exploit the structural tensions within Trump's political coalition. If American casualty figures rise and Iranian messaging gains traction among key domestic constituencies, the administration may face pressure to seek an exit before Iranian military capacity is fully degraded. Israel's interest, therefore, lies not only in the kinetic campaign but in actively managing the U.S. political narrative - ensuring that the framing of the war as a shared American and Israeli strategic imperative holds against Tehran's sustained effort to redefine it as a unilateral Israeli project fought on American blood and dollars.
Iran's multi-theater offensive has paradoxically accelerated Israeli strategic positioning. Gulf states under direct attack now share an unprecedented convergence of interests with Jerusalem. The Strait closure imposes symmetric pain on Iran's collapsing economy, on China's patience, and on Gulf export revenues, narrowing Tehran's window for sustainable pressure. The decisive variable is American political durability. Larijani's "America First" → "Israel First" inversion is Tehran's most potent weapon, designed to erode the domestic U.S. consensus underpinning Operation Epic Fury. Israel's foremost strategic imperative is to ensure that the weapon is neutralized — in Washington's corridors of power no less than on the battlefield.
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Indepth -
Military Operations & Operation "True Promise 4"
Following the U.S.-Israeli kinetic decapitation strikes on February 28, 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) initiated "Operation True Promise 4", a multi-wave retaliatory campaign designed to impose "maximum cost on the aggressors".
Engagement Waves: By March 2, the IRGC announced the 11th wave of retaliatory strikes, claiming the use of more than 700 drones and hundreds of missiles since the onset of hostilities.
Targets in Israel: According to Iranian media, strikes targeted communication facilities in Beersheba, locations in Tel Aviv, West Jerusalem, and the Galilee. The IRGC officially claimed to have "severely hit" the Office of the Israeli Prime Minister using Khyber (Khorramshahr-4) missiles.
Regional Retaliation: "High-precision strikes" targeted U.S. regional military hubs, including the U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, and Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE.
Maritime Blockade: Senior IRGC adviser Brigadier General Sardar Ebrahim Jabbari formally announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening that "The Strait of Hormuz has been closed. We will attack and set ablaze any ship attempting to cross.”
Diplomatic Strategy & "Resistance Diplomacy"
Iran’s diplomatic corps has framed the war as a legitimate act of self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter while rejecting any immediate negotiations.
The Larijani Doctrine: Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), has emerged as the state’s primary "crisis manager". Larijani has unequivocally declared that "we will not negotiate with the United States" while under military pressure, labeling U.S. offers of dialogue as "delusional".
Global Advocacy: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has mobilized the UN Security Council and the IAEA, demanding accountability for strikes on civilian infrastructure and nuclear enrichment sites such as Natanz.
Information Warfare & Core Propaganda Strategy
Since the assassination of Ali Khamenei, Tehran has waged an informational campaign aimed at eroding domestic political support for the war within the United States.
Targeting the American Right: Consistent messaging across all official channels asserts that "American soldiers are dying for Israel, not for America". This is precision-targeted at isolationist and populist constituencies.
Larijani’s Narrative: Larijani crystallized this by stating that the "America First" slogan has practically become "Israel First," accusing President Trump of sacrificing American troops for Israeli interests.
The regime highlights civilian casualties—specifically the alleged destruction of Gandhi Hospital and the Minab elementary school (where over 160 students reportedly died)—to paint the U.S. and Israel as "oppressive forces".
Internal Security, Stability & Governance
Facing its most significant internal threat since 1979, the state has implemented severe measures to suppress dissent and manage the leadership vacuum.
The Interim Leadership Council: Following the death of Ali Khamenei on February 28, an interim body was formed per Article 111 of the Constitution, comprising Masoud Pezeshkian (President), Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei (Chief Justice), and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi (Guardian Council jurist).
Suppression of Protests: The IRGC Intelligence arm warned that any street protests would be treated as "collaboration with the enemy" and met with a "firm response". This follows the bloody suppression of the January 2026 uprisings, in which tens of thousands were reportedly killed.
Digital Control: A near-total internet blackout (reducing connectivity to 1–4%) was implemented to disrupt opposition coordination and mask the scale of the internal crackdown. By muting independent voices, the measure amplifies pro-government "wartime" narratives and misinformation online, echoing patterns in prior Iranian protests,
Regional Incitement & Operations in Bahrain
Tehran has sought to frame the conflict as a religious struggle, specifically targeting the Shiite population in Bahrain to destabilize the U.S. presence there.
Religious Incitement: President Pezeshkian labeled the killing of Khamenei an "open declaration of war against Muslims, especially Shiites".
Kinetic Impact: IRGC missiles hit the area near the U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Manama, causing visible smoke and nationwide shelter orders.
Civilian Disruption in Bahrain: An Iranian drone strike hit the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Manama, injuring U.S. personnel and forcing evacuations. Additionally, a fire was reported at the Mina Salman port. Since the beginning of the week, reports from regional networks indicate a sharp escalation in Bahrain as the kingdom faces both external strikes and internal instability. Tensions spiked following a series of Iranian missile and drone attacks, which most notably targeted the King Fahd Causeway, the strategic bridge linking Bahrain to Saudi Arabia. This strike appears intended to physically and symbolically sever the kingdom’s primary lifeline to its strongest regional ally, causing significant transit disruption and heightening fears of a broader blockade.
Simultaneously, the Bahraini government warns that Iran is actively fueling domestic Shiite unrest by mobilizing Shiite "sleeper cells" embedded within the kingdom. These clandestine groups are believed to be behind the sudden surge in violent street protests and sabotage attempts aimed at security infrastructure. By coordinating these internal disruptions with external military strikes, Tehran is likely attempting to destabilize the monarchy from within, forcing the Bahraini leadership to contend with a dual-front threat to its national sovereignty and internal order.
Proxy Coordination: The (re-) Unified "Axis of Resistance."
The "Axis of Resistance" has integrated into the operational theater, serving as a force multiplier for Tehran.
Hezbollah: Hezballah announced it is formally joining the military campaign. In a statement issued following the reported elimination of Iranian leadership (https://www.irandossier.online/post/iran-after-the-elimination-of-supreme-leader-khamenei), Hezbollah declared it would no longer adhere to previous "containment" strategies, launching rocket barrages and drone swarms toward northern Israel.
Iraqi Militias: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has issued a formal statement claiming responsibility for a massive wave of attacks targeting U.S. military installations. According to the group’s communique, a total of 28 coordinated operations were carried out on Monday (March 2). The group stated that the operations involved the use of "dozens of missiles and suicide drones" (UAVs). The strikes were reportedly aimed at several bases occupied by what the group describes as "enemy [American] forces" situated both within Iraq and across the broader Middle Eastern region.
Houthis: Since the beginning of this week (March 1–3, 2026), Houthi rhetoric has shifted into a high-intensity phase following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The movement’s leadership, spearheaded by Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, has framed the event as a "heinous American-Zionist crime" that mandates a unified military response from the entire "Axis of Resistance." In televised addresses marking the start of Ramadan, the group has utilized heavy religious symbolism to mobilize the Yemeni public, calling for mass demonstrations and declaring that the "path of Jihad" against Western influence in the region has entered its most decisive stage.
On the operational front, the Houthis have officially signaled a return to maritime hostilities, effectively ending the relative calm observed since late 2025. Military spokesperson Yahya Saree and other officials have indicated that the group is resuming strikes against US and Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This escalation is presented as a direct retaliatory measure for the strikes in Iran, with Houthi commanders explicitly linking the security of international shipping to the ongoing regional confrontation with the "Great Satan" (the US) and the "Zionist entity."
Impact on Regional Energy & Strategic Infrastructure
Iran and its proxies' retaliatory strikes have specifically targeted energy hubs in the Gulf to disrupt global markets and pressure the U.S. coalition.
Saudi Arabia: The Ras Tanura refinery, one of the world's largest, faced a precautionary shutdown after an Iranian drone strike.
United Arab Emirates: Strikes targeted the Jebel Ali Port, causing a power cut/shutdown at a major Amazon Web Services (AWS) data center.
Qatar: Successful strikes on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities halted production, driving up European gas prices by nearly 50%.
Kuwait: Shrapnel from intercepts hit a major oil refinery, while drone strikes hit Kuwait International Airport.
Targeted Attrition of the IRGC
The U.S.-Israeli campaign has systematically dismantled the IRGC's military and command assets (partial list)
Naval Losses: The flagship IRIS Jamaran was sunk, along with an Alvand-class frigate and two Bayandor-class corvettes. In total, the U.S. claimed nine naval ships were destroyed. CENTCOM separately confirmed the sinking of a Jamaran-class corvette at Chah Bahar during the opening phase of the operation, with President Trump stating that ten Iranian ships had been "knocked out" in total — prompting CENTCOM to declare: "Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman — today it has zero.
IRINS Makran & Expanded Naval Attrition at Bandar Abbas The IRINS Makran - a former crude oil tanker converted into Iran's first forward base ship, commissioned in 2021 and capable of deploying up to seven helicopters and drone launch platforms - was struck on March 2 by U.S. Navy cruise missiles at Bandar Abbas Naval Base. Analysis of satellite imagery indicates that IRIS Sahand, IRIS Sabalan, and IRIS Zagros were likely sunk or heavily damaged in the same strikes. " Naval News Concurrently, Iran deployed an uncrewed surface vehicle (USV) - a first in this conflict - to strike the commercial oil tanker MKD VYOM approximately 50 nautical miles off the coast of Muscat, Oman, with the crew subsequently evacuated to shore.
Air & Missile Force: Strikes destroyed multiple aircraft on runways, including F-4E, F-5E, Su-22M4, and Su-24MK models. Strategic "missile cities" and the Amand Missile Base saw the destruction of dozens of launchers.
Command Destruction: The IRGC and internal security headquarters in Tehran were leveled, including the Supreme Leader's Pasteur Street compound and the Thar-Allah Headquarters.
Economic Resilience & War Economy Risks
The Iranian economy is operating under an emergency "Resistance Economy" framework.
Currency Crisis: The Rial has suffered a severe devaluation, falling by 20% in the conflict's early stages. Merchants in the Tehran Bazaar have held protests against this extreme instability.
Energy Rationing: Vital industries such as steel, mining, and cement have faced power outages to prioritize residential supply, threatening a total collapse of industry.
Trade & Reserves: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts 20% of global oil trade and threatens Iran's 25-year cooperation agreement with China, its primary trade lifeline.
Oil Facility Vulnerability: Potential attacks on oil terminals, such as Kharg Island, or on refineries in Bandar Abbas, threaten Iran's primary source of foreign currency and survival.
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