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Iran’s "Chicken Maneuver" and the Marginalization of Internal Dissent
Tehran executes a high-stakes "Chicken Maneuver," betting that aggressive maritime threats and strategic resolve will force Washington into a favorable, "deal-oriented" retreat. Despite claims of victory over January’s "fitna," renewed university protests and President Trump’s lingering promises continue to challenge the regime's grasp on internal stability
2 days ago7 min read


Unverified Claim: Sistani Warns of Jihad Fatwa if U.S. Strikes Khamenei
Circulating claim of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issuing or threatening a jihad fatwa in defense of Khamene- unsubstantiated
2 days ago3 min read


Iran - Weekly Update - Iran Dares Washington
Tehran is openly defying Washington with “fingers on the trigger” deterrence messaging and retaliatory threats that increasingly implicate Israel. Simultaneously, it is escalating repression—executions, forced-confession narratives, and sustained internet disruption—to crush protests at any cost.
Jan 297 min read


Tehran’s Containment Strategy: Managing Domestic Unrest and Deterring a U.S./Israeli Strike
Iran is threatening regional escalation to deter a U.S./Israeli strike, warning neighbors they will be treated as combatants.
At home, it is crushing protests via a total blackout and framing unrest as foreign terrorism to justify repression.
Jan 146 min read


Tehran Signals Escalating Repression Despite US Warning Lines
The regime’s priority is survival: it is likely to intensify coercion while managing optics and blame to reduce the risk of a US-Israel intervention trigger.
Jan 117 min read


Iran’s No-Compromise Response to Protests and Implications for Israel
The Iranian regime will not hesitate to apply maximum coercive power to suppress the protest
Jan 67 min read


Shifting Paradigms: Reformist Dreams, Conservative Barriers
Zarif’s Foreign Affairs essay calls for change; conservatives reply with mockery, citing JCPOA betrayal
Aug 17, 20256 min read


Iran’s Arbaeen Message: Destroy Israel, Defy America
Tehran’s Arbaeen message fuses Karbala sacrifice with calls to eliminate Israel and expel U.S. influence.
Aug 14, 202516 min read


Houthi Missiles, Iranian Backing: Expanding Threat to the World's Shipping
Houthi Missiles, Iranian Signatures: A Rising Threat to Israel, the U.S., and Global Trade Routes
Aug 6, 20258 min read


Managed Discord: Iran’s Strategic Use of Internal Debate to Lure the West
Iran’s “Internal Debate” Is a Strategic Illusion Aimed at Preserving the Regime’s Revolutionary Trajectory
Jul 24, 20257 min read


No Help from Moscow: Iran’s Air Defense Doctrine After the War
Iran attempts to rebuild its air defenses under constraints, relying on domestic systems amid absent Russian suppor
Jul 21, 20257 min read


Iran’s Nuclear Leverage in the Shadow of Snapback
How Tehran’s centrifuge advances, strategic timing, and diplomatic brinkmanship are reshaping the JCPOA endgame
Jul 20, 20255 min read


Strategic Crossroads: Iran Between Russian Disappointment and Chinese Restraint
Iran, frustrated by Russian inaction, pivots toward China to secure military, economic, and nuclear advancement
Jul 17, 20257 min read


Neo-Nationalism in Iran: A Strategic Response to Defeat and a Double-Edged Sword
Iran turns war losses into nationalist revival, yet awakened civic identity could undermine clerical rule long-term.
Jul 15, 20258 min read


Just Another BRICS in the Wall: Iran’s Strategic Recalibration
Another BRICS in the wall of war—Iran rebuilds power through resistance, retaliation, and anti-Western alliances
Jul 8, 20254 min read


Every Day is Ashura: How Iran Transforms Religious Memory into Geopolitical Action
Eternal Karbala narrative drives Iranian resistance, nuclear persistence, and proxy support despite military setbacks
Jul 6, 20254 min read


Izadi: Iran’s Proxy Architect Killed
Iran’s top Hamas liaison Izadi assassinated
Jun 28, 20257 min read


Iranian Media Celebrate ‘Victory’ as Public Sentiment Remains Divided
State victory propaganda dominates headlines, yet beneath the surface, hopes for reform, freedom, and justice challenge the regime’s triumphant narrative.
Jun 25, 20254 min read


Senior Iranian Nuclear Scientist Linked to Iran’s Military Nuclear Program killed
A shift in Israeli strategy to simultaneously target both the physical infrastructure of the program and the scientists who are centers of knowledge.
Jun 24, 20252 min read


Tehran Mythologizes “12-Day War” as Sacred Prelude to Ongoing Nuclear Plans
No Security Without Full Rollback of Iran’s Nuclear Program
Jun 24, 20254 min read
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