Iran Protest: Regime Delegitimization and Crackdown Preparations

Tehran Prosecutor: The judiciary’s red line is citizens’ security. Our response to terrorists will be deterrent, and their charge is moharebeh (“waging war”—in Islamic legal usage, “waging war against God (and society)”). punishable by death

January 9, 21:30

Summary

Since Friday, January 9, Iran’s state-aligned media has launched a synchronized campaign to shift attention from economic collapse to “national security threats.” IRNA, Tasnim, Fars, and Press TV are framing protesters as rioters/terrorists and flooding coverage with images of destruction and injured security personnel to delegitimize dissent and rally the silent majority behind “order.”

The regime is amplifying foreign-plot narratives (Zionist/U.S., MEK, Mossad, “anti-Iranian forces abroad”), alongside high-profile arrests and “evidence” content to create a legal and social mandate for repression. Tehran Prosecutor messaging reinforces this escalation track: “The judiciary’s red line is citizens’ security. Our response to terrorists will be deterrent, and their charge is moharebeh”—“waging war” (in Islamic legal usage, “waging war against God (and society)”), a charge punishable by death.

Assessment (24–72 hours): High likelihood of escalation, including broader internet restrictions and more aggressive use of force, justified as defense against a foreign-orchestrated hybrid attack. While the playbook is familiar, the protests appear broader and more sustained, fueled by the economic crisis, war-related economic damage, and growing public anger that billions spent on proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria) came at the expense of Iranians—deepening despair and pressure on the regime to clamp down.

The "Foreign Hand" Narrative: How Iranian State Media is framing the 2026 Unrest

Since Friday, January 9, the Iranian state-run media apparatus has launched a synchronized information campaign to pivot public discourse from economic grievances to "national security threats." Following the escalation of street protests, outlets such as IRNA, Tasnim News Agency, Fars News, and Press TV have moved in lockstep to paint a picture of a nation under attack by foreign-backed "mercenaries" and "vandal groups."

Framing Protesters as "Rioters" and "Vandalists"

The primary focus of recent broadcasts and Social network updates is the visual documentation of destruction. Rather than discussing the 40% inflation rate or the collapse of the Rial, the narrative focuses exclusively on the aftermath of clashes.

• IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News shared a montage of burning ambulances and damaged bank facades, and beaten security force personnel captioned: "These are not the actions of those seeking economic reform; these are the footprints of trained saboteurs aiming to paralyze public services." Rioters and thugs attacked him mercilessly, creating a disturbing scene that would pain the heart of any free human being".

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• A report on Defapress emphasized the "terrorist nature" of the unrest, stating: "The distinction between the noble people of Iran and the hired thugs of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) has been made clear by the blood of our martyred security officers."

“Widespread destruction of public property by armed terrorists in Tehran.”

The "Zionist-American Plot" Rhetoric

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and high-ranking military officials have spent the last 12 hours issuing stern warnings against international "interference." They argue that the protests are not organic but are a "hybrid war" launched from abroad. Official Quote from the MFA Spokesperson:

"The hypocritical support from Washington and Tel Aviv for the recent disturbances in some Iranian cities is a desperate attempt to compensate for their failures in the region. Iran’s security is a red line that will not be crossed by puppets of foreign intelligence services."

• Fars News highlighted a statement from a Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commander: "We have documented evidence that the riots are being directed via satellite networks managed by Zionist agents."

  
  

• IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News agency published IRGC Intelligence Organization warning: "We warn that the continuation of this situation is unacceptable; the blood of those killed in the recent terrorist incidents is on the hands of its planners, and the people of Iran regard as legitimate for themselves the right to retaliate ...The IRGC Intelligence Organization, in coordination with the relevant authorities, says it is monitoring and pursuing the public’s livelihood and labor-related grievances and investigating any possible derelictions of duty. It adds that protecting the achievements of the Islamic Revolution and maintaining public security are its “red lines,” and that it will stand with the Iranian nation until the enemy’s plan is completely defeated and citizens’ security is fully restored.

 IRGC Intelligence: The continuation of this situation is unacceptable

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The Digital Battlefield: Leading Hashtags

The regime is currently weaponizing specific Persian hashtags to categorize the protests as criminal acts rather than political movements. Below are the most prominent tags being pushed by state-aligned "cyber armies" in the last 12 hours:

• Proxy Riots -Seekers: A derogatory label used to frame protesters as enemies of civil infrastructure.

• Media Terrorism: Aimed at delegitimizing international news coverage.

• Security is Our Red Line: A warning signal of an imminent, large-scale military crackdown.

• The Role of the Foreigner: Used to promote "confession" videos and alleged evidence of foreign espionage.

  
  

Weaponizing Images of Destruction

The state-aligned Telegram channels (@Tasnimnews, @farsna) have been updated hourly with "citizen reports" showing targeted arson of religious centers and injured personnel. SNN (Student News Network) recently posted:

"The triangle of evil, composed of Western media, Saudi funding, and Zionist planning, is using deepfake technology and old footage to exaggerate the scale of the disturbances. The streets of Tehran remain calm under the watchful eyes of the law."

Specific Arrests & Accusations

• SNN (Student News Agency) reported the arrest of an individual named "Mehrdad Rahimi", described as a liaison between Mossad and rioters inside Iran (accompanied by a purported evidence video):

  
  

• Arrests in Shirvan following attacks on public property – labeled as "terrorist acts":

  
  

• Individuals allegedly linked to “anti-Iranian forces abroad” who circulated call-to-action messages urging an attack on the Jahrom Governor’s Office were identified and arrested under a judicial order

  
  
  
  

NOTE: The Iranian regime is reverting to a familiar escalation pathway: deflect blame outward, delegitimize dissent, and then operationalize repression. By attributing unrest to a “foreign hand,” authorities can sidestep the core drivers of discontent—especially the deteriorating economic environment—while reframing protests as a national security threat rather than a domestic crisis.

Narrative shaping is likely to intensify. Continued emphasis on property damage and alleged “attacks on the public” will aim to cultivate a sense of collective victimhood and pull the silent majority toward stability-over-change preferences. In parallel, the regime will likely amplify highly publicized arrest announcements—often staged, inflated, or unverifiable—to manufacture “evidence” and widen legal/social permission for harsher measures.

Operational indicators point to an expansion of coercive options. The messaging environment is setting the stage for a declaration of a local or national emergency, broader internet disruptions, and, if unrest persists or spreads, a more direct deployment of IRGC ground forces alongside expanded lethal-force authorization—framed as defense against a foreign-orchestrated hybrid attack.

Probability assessment: High likelihood of additional escalation within 24-72 hours, including expanded internet restrictions and more aggressive lethal-force use, justified through the regime’s “sovereignty and public security” narrative.

While this deflection–delegitimization-escalation pattern is familiar from previous protest waves, the current unrest appears broader in geographic spread and more sustained in duration. It is being fueled not only by the acute economic crisis but also by accumulated public grievances and perceptions that have deepened across society. Those sentiments have been further sharpened by the war with Israel and its downstream costs to Iran’s economy, alongside a growing public awareness that Iran’s long-funded regional proxy investments-Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Syria file-have yielded diminishing returns, with billions effectively written off in the eyes of many Iranians.