Breaking the System: Israel’s Strikes and Iran’s Crisis of Control

Freedom

DATE: June 19, 2025

Summary

In response to intensified Israeli airstrikes on critical military, nuclear, energy, and water infrastructure—and amid reports of Mossad infiltration—the Iranian regime has dramatically escalated internal security efforts to deter unrest and preserve control. These measures include:

• Severe internet restrictions aimed at disrupting protest coordination.

• Deployment of the IRGC, Basij, and FARAJA to monitor cities, enforce order, and establish checkpoints.

• Heightened public surveillance and propaganda, including calls to report suspicious behavior.

• Dozens of arrests for alleged espionage and collaboration with foreign media, with one individual executed to send a deterrent message.

• A new law criminalizes media cooperation with foreign entities under the pretext of national security.

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The regime's efforts signal deep concern about internal instability. Popular discontent is growing amid economic collapse, energy blackouts, and degraded enforcement capacity due to Israeli strikes on internal security forces.

Unlike previous protest waves in 2009, 2019, and 2022, the current unrest—though still potential—is emerging under unprecedented external pressure and a crippled coercive apparatus. While Tehran may temporarily suppress dissent, its mid- to long-term ability to prevent a mass uprising is increasingly in jeopardy.

A ceasefire could allow the regime to regroup and reposition its forces. However, sustained military and informational pressure could hasten its erosion.

A shift from the Islamic system to a system for all Iranians may be underway.

Indepth

The Iranian regime has escalated its internal security measures to prevent protests and maintain control amid Israeli airstrikes targeting its nuclear, military, energy, and water infrastructure, as well as amid allegations of Mossad infiltration. These strikes have exacerbated Iran’s ongoing energy crisis, disrupted water supplies, and crippled its economy, raising fears of internal unrest. Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has targeted key internal security institutions, including the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Headquarters, straining the regime’s ability to suppress dissent.

The Iranian regime has enacted temporary internet restrictions aimed at disrupting communication and hindering the organization of potential protests. The move limits the flow of information from within Iran’s domestic information space and prevents opposition activists from effectively coordinating their activities against the regime.

Numerous popular websites and messaging platforms have been rendered inaccessible. Authorities have also issued public warnings, urging citizens to report suspicious behavior—such as unidentified vehicles or individuals attempting to conceal their identities—reflecting heightened concerns over possible sabotage. Security forces have claimed the seizure of equipment allegedly tied to Mossad operatives, including more than 200 kilograms of explosives and drone components.

These actions have been widely publicized to project an image of vigilance and control. Collectively, they are part of a broader crackdown designed to suppress internal unrest and preempt any instability that may arise in response to Israel’s ongoing air campaign against Iran.

In this regard, the Majlis passed a bill on June 17 that imposes harsher penalties on individuals who cooperate with "hostile" foreign governments. The bill defines “cooperation" broadly, including actions such as sending videos or images to foreign media networks that might "weaken public morale or create division." Azizi, Chairman of the Parliament’s National Security Commission, stated:

"Under this proposal, any collaboration in media or propaganda efforts—including the transmission of videos or images to hostile or foreign outlets that undermine public morale or sow discord—will be considered a national security offense and subject to strict legal consequences."

In light of recent Israeli military operations and reports of Mossad infiltration, Tehran has significantly expanded domestic security measures to preempt protests and swiftly suppress emerging dissent.

The IRGC, in coordination with the Basij, has set up checkpoints at key exit points from Tehran to screen for suspected espionage, underscoring growing concerns about Mossad infiltration. It played a leading role in the alleged arrest of individuals accused of working with Israel, including those found with drones, explosives, or materials intended for online propaganda. The IRGC's intelligence arm issued stern warnings against any collaboration with hostile foreign entities, promising severe legal consequences. These actions are part of the IRGC’s broader campaign to assert internal control during this period of instability.

The Basij (paramilitary wing of the IRGC) was deployed across Tehran and other major cities to establish checkpoints, with the stated aim of preventing sabotage and monitoring internal movement. Night patrols have been significantly expanded, reflecting fears of infiltration by foreign agents. The Basij's prominent role in suppressing earlier protest waves—most notably the 2022 Mahsa Amini demonstrations—has caused public restlessness. Their renewed visibility in civilian spaces has reignited fear and resentment among large segments of the population.

Basij Patrol

Internal security forces, including FARAJA, were deployed alongside the Basij and IRGC to enforce surveillance and security measures across urban centers. Police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan publicly warned so-called “traitors” to surrender, offering leniency in return for cooperation while threatening harsh punishment for defiance. The morality police, operating under the renewed “Noor Plan,” continued enforcing strict Islamic codes, particularly mandatory hijab laws. Their return to active street enforcement has reinforced fears of a return to broader social repression. Opposition social network activists claimed that riot police were relocated to police stations using motorcycles to create mobile checkpoints. On June 18, 2025, residents in Tehran reported to Iranian opposition media, specifically Iran International, that the regime deployed riot police to the capital’s streets to deter demonstrations.

The Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS), in coordination with the Judiciary, has arrested dozens on charges of espionage for Israel, including 28 individuals in Tehran and 60 in Isfahan. Those detained were accused of spreading pro-Israel content and undermining “psychological security.” A special unit was formed within the Tehran prosecutor’s office to monitor journalists, influencers, and media platforms for content deemed subversive. In a high-profile case, one individual was executed for allegedly spying for Mossad, sending a chilling message to would-be dissenters and collaborators.

Israel’s strategy combines direct military pressure with an intent to destabilize the regime internally by degrading its ability to provide services, enforce order, and control narratives. These measures may exacerbate existing economic and social pressures inside Iran, limiting the regime’s capacity to contain protests and maintain legitimacy.

The current potential—though not yet realized—for unrest in Iran presents a significantly greater challenge to the regime than previous protest cycles in 2009 (The Green Movement), 2019 (fuel price protests), or 2022 (Mahsa Amini Uprising). While the Islamic Republic has historically relied on brutal repression, media control, and forceful policing to contain dissent, several factors now threaten its ability to do so effectively in the short-to-medium term.

Unlike earlier protests, the current crisis is unfolding amid unprecedented external pressure—including Israeli airstrikes on critical military and civilian infrastructure and internal security forces—alongside a deepening economic collapse, energy blackouts, and widespread dissatisfaction across social classes. The regime's internal security apparatus is visibly strained, with parts of the police and IRGC targeted and degraded, undermining deterrence.

What sets this round apart is the convergence of domestic and external crises, which collectively erode the regime’s capacity to project control. While the regime may still contain unrest in the short term, its mid-to-long-term ability to prevent a widespread uprising is in serious jeopardy.

A ceasefire in the Israeli-Iranian confrontation could offer the regime critical breathing room, allowing it to regroup, redeploy security forces, and suppress protests more effectively.

Conversely, sustained external pressure on the regime’s coercive apparatuses—including the Basij, LEF, and Morality Police—could accelerate the regime’s collapse. By undermining the state’s enforcement capacity and amplifying internal chaos, such pressure increases the likelihood of mass defiance and institutional breakdown.

The current crisis may yet evolve into a tipping point for systemic change.

A shift from the Islamic system to a system for all Iranians may be underway.