Khamenei’s Strategy Toward Israel: From Planning to October 7

August 9, 2023

God Nullified Their Plot. Ayatollah Khamenei stated that the enemy’s war plan assumed that an attack on Iran would quickly weaken the Islamic system, awakening dormant cells of “hypocrites, monarchists, mercenaries, and thugs,” ultimately bringing about the regime’s collapse. In reality, he said, the opposite occurred: the system remained steadfast, and “God nullified their plot” (July 15, 2025)

An illustration conveying this message was published on the Supreme Leader’s official website, KHAMENEI.IR, underscoring his claim that the war, instead of dismantling Iran’s system, strengthened its resilience.

Executive Summary – Israel Strategy Dimension

The following is a translation of an interview with Mohsen Mahdian, a regime-loyal journalist whose views are closely aligned with Ayatollah Khamenei. The interview was published on the official website of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (KHAMENEI.IR) as part of a special dossier titled“Narrative of Victory.” (For the full interview with Mohsen Mahdian, see Annex).

This series features post-war strategic reflections by various officials. Another related interview, for instance, Dr. Seyyed Ali Madanizadeh, the Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, explores how Iran’s economy turned the threat of war into an opportunity for reform and resilience under challenging conditions. You can find it under the title “From the threat of recent war, we create opportunity and solve our economic issues".

In this interview, Mahdian presents a rare, structured articulation of Iran’s strategic doctrine toward Israel. He lays out the guiding principles that have shaped Tehran’s actions in recent years, culminating, in his telling, in the October 7 massacre and the direct war between Israel and Iran that followed.

Mahdian frames the "12-Day imposed war" with Israel as neither accidental nor reactive, but the culmination of a long-term strategic plan embedded within Iran’s “Resistance Front.” Mahdian asserts that the October 7 attack marked the plan’s “explosive point,” shattering Israel’s deterrence and dismantling long-held myths about its invincibility. He emphasizes that the war’s initiation by Israel was itself a strategic victory for Iran, achieved through years of coordinated military, intelligence, and ideological preparation under the doctrine of wilayah (Guardianship of the Jurist).

In his view, the conflict integrated the Resistance Front into Iran’s national strategy, validated Tehran’s offensive–defensive deterrence model, and advanced the Islamic Republic’s long-term objective of eroding and ultimately removing the Zionist regime.

Mohsen Mahdian, an Iranian journalist and political commentator, serves as Managing Director of Hamshahri, Tehran’s municipality-owned daily and one of Iran’s most widely read newspapers. Closely aligned with the Supreme Leader’s office, he is a prominent advocate of the Islamic Republic’s long-term “Resistance Front” strategy, portraying Iran’s struggle against Israel as a calculated, indirect campaign waged through proxies, public opinion shaping, and ideological narratives.

Mahdian: From the Vision of Israel’s Elimination to the October 7 Detonation

The War as a Planned Milestone – Not an Isolated Incident

Mahdian makes clear that the path to October 7 was deliberately engineered as part of a long-term strategic program within the Resistance Front - a process years in the making that built up political, military, and intelligence capabilities to a planned “point of explosion.” Equally, he frames the Israeli response that followed - the escalation into a direct war with Iran — as anticipated and factored into this strategy. In his account, October 7 shattered the Zionist regime’s prestige and long-standing myths, while the subsequent Israeli attack on Iran, far from a setback, was seen in Tehran as a strategic gain: proof that Israel had been driven into a confrontation on terms set by the Islamic Republic, not from a position of strength but from one of compulsion and desperation.

According to Mahdian, the outbreak of the war was predictable: Israel was “cornered” and had no choice but to attack Iran. This, he stresses, was not an act of strength but of desperation — a reactive move to years of Iranian-led strengthening of the Resistance Front, built through expanded proxy capabilities, missile forces, air defenses, intelligence, and security preparations.

The Doctrine of Eliminating Israel Without Direct Military Confrontation

Addressing one of Iran’s most controversial goals, Mahdian explains:

“When it is said that the Islamic Republic seeks the elimination of the Zionist regime, both ‘yes’ and ‘no’ are correct. Imam Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei have said so - but not in the sense of entering directly with our own military. The meaning is that the people themselves should rise and remove this regime. In such a case, we will certainly support them.”

In this framing, Iran’s role is to empower others to act, especially Palestinians, while avoiding a direct state-on-state war.

Shaping Global Public Opinion as a Strategic Weapon

Mahdian emphasizes that changing the global narrative is a core Iranian priority. He argues the world must see Iran as “powerful yet oppressed,” displaying military strength while highlighting its victimhood. This, he claims, has contributed to rising protests against Israel in Western countries, which in turn pressure their governments to recognize Palestine.

The Legal and Diplomatic Fronts - Part of a Combined War

The strategy, Mahdian notes, is not purely military. It integrates legal action in domestic and international courts against Israel, combined with diplomatic outreach and public messaging. These fronts are seen as essential components of the same “combined war” approach, alongside field operations and proxy activity.

The Struggle as an Ongoing Civilizational War

Mahdian frames the Iran–Israel conflict as part of a wider civilizational confrontation between the Islamic Republic and a unified front of global powers, which he describes as an “intelligence and security NATO.” The enemy’s targets, he says, are Iran’s religion and scientific progress.

From this perspective, ceasefires are tactical pauses, not peace: “We are by no means in a phase of peace,”. The conflict, in Tehran’s view, is ongoing and will continue until strategic objectives are met.

Conclusion: October 7 as a Turning Point in Iran’s Strategy

Mahdian’s interview positions October 7 and the war that followed as the culmination of decades of Iranian policy toward Israel. It depicts the massacre not as a rogue terrorist act, but as a calculated milestone in a long-term campaign - combining proxy warfare, information operations, legal and diplomatic pressure, and a narrative of civilizational struggle - aimed at weakening Israel and ultimately erasing the Zionist regime.

Annex – “Narrative of Victory”

Six Variables Regarding the Supreme Leader’s Management During the 12-Day Imposed War with the Zionist Regime, Based on Remarks by Mohsen Mahdian

Introduction

On August 7, 2025, during a ceremony marking the fortieth day since the martyrdom of those killed in the recent Zionist regime’s imposed war against Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei recounted the events of the 12-day conflict. He described the Iranian nation’s victory as a great honor, stating:

"What took place for the Islamic Republic during these twelve days, in addition to the great honors achieved by the Iranian nation — honors now acknowledged even by people around the world — was that the Islamic Republic and our dear Iranian people demonstrated their strength, determination, steadfastness, and full preparedness to the world. Those who had only heard of it from afar now felt it up close. Beyond that, the Islamic Republic showed the unparalleled solidity of the foundations of its system and its country."

The KHAMENEI.IR website compiled the “Narrative of Victory” file containing expert analyses from various fields on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s victory in the 12-day imposed war with the Zionist regime and the role of the Supreme Leader in guiding the nation during that period.

In this context, Mohsen Mahdian, media analyst and activist, presented his view of the six main variables defining the Leader’s management during the war and their impact on mobilizing the people.

1. Wilayah as the Foundation of Independence

Mahdian explains that the principle of wilayah (Velayat-e Faqih - Guardianship of the Jurist [Shiʿi doctrine that a qualified Islamic jurist leads the Muslim community in the absence of the Imam, combining religious authority with political leadership to ensure unity]) is the source of true independence in society.

For the Islamic Republic, independence is not merely political or economic. It is defined as sovereignty grounded in popular participation. The slogan “Neither East nor West, Islamic Republic” expresses this idea: a state founded on the active presence and role of the people.

If independence is rooted in the people’s role, then the role of the wali [jurist-leader] becomes central. Wilayah has two aspects: the relationship between the leader and the people, and the relationship among the people themselves. The leader is part of the community, guiding it while fostering cohesion so that it becomes a unified ummah [Islamic community].

This was the model in Imam Khomeini’s era from the 1960s through the 1979 Revolution: the people rose in unity under the guidance of the wali and established a government. National independence, Mahdian asserts, is inseparable from the role of the wali in uniting the people.

2. Understanding the Leader’s Strategic Calculus

Mahdian emphasizes that in the 12-day war, two things mattered above all: leadership of the community and creation of internal unity. The defining feature of this war was national cohesion and the role of the wali in producing it.

This must be seen as part of a process rather than a single event. The war was one point along a broader trajectory — a trajectory whose critical moment came in the “sacred 12-day war.”

To explain the Leader’s role, Mahdian describes his “computational system” — a framework of criteria and variables guiding his decisions. This explains current political choices, diplomatic directions, and appointments, and clarifies the kind of unity being pursued. It is not the temporary solidarity seen during natural disasters; it is ideological and strategic cohesion.

3. The War as an Involuntary Move by the Enemy

Mahdian insists that the 12-day war should not be seen as spontaneous. It was the product of a long-term strategic plan within the “Resistance Front” which reached its point of explosion on October 7. This plan, he says, destroyed the Zionist regime’s prestige and dismantled the myths it had relied on for nearly a century.

The war’s timing was predictable. The Zionist regime was forced into it not from a position of strength, but out of desperation. Even Western analysts have acknowledged that the mere fact that Israel attacked Iran was already a strategic victory for the Islamic Republic, proof that Iran had cornered its adversary.

This, Mahdian argues, was the result of Iran’s sustained military, intelligence, missile, and air defense preparations, combined with the political and ideological mobilization of the Resistance over the years.

4. From Defensive Readiness to Offensive Initiative

Mahdian notes that the Leader’s strategy does not separate defense from offense. Readiness is not merely about withstanding attack, but about having the capability to strike decisively when necessary. The 12-day war demonstrated this principle: Iran’s defense systems functioned effectively while offensive capabilities were deployed in calibrated ways to send clear messages to both the enemy and the wider region.

The war showed that the Islamic Republic’s deterrence is active, not passive. Its strength lies in the capacity to impose strategic costs on the enemy at a time and place of Iran’s choosing.

5. Integrating the Resistance Front into National Strategy

Mahdian stresses that the Resistance Front is not an external appendage but part of Iran’s integrated defense and strategic doctrine. Support for groups such as Hezbollah, Palestinian factions, and regional allies is woven into the Islamic Republic’s security fabric.

The October 7 events and the subsequent war were, in his view, proof of the depth of coordination between Iran and its allies. The damage inflicted on Israel’s image and military credibility was not incidental, but the result of years of deliberate cultivation of Resistance capabilities.

6. Strategic Patience and Long-Term Victory

Mahdian concludes that the Leader’s approach rests on sabr strateji [strategic patience] — knowing when to absorb pressure and when to act. The 12-day war was not an endpoint but a stage in a more prolonged struggle whose objectives include the erosion and eventual removal of the Zionist regime.

He argues that every action taken, from diplomatic moves to military operations, is measured against this end goal. The Leader’s role is to maintain focus on this trajectory, ensuring that short-term setbacks do not derail long-term objectives.

Closing Note

Mahdian’s analysis situates the 12-day war within a continuum of resistance, ideological clarity, and strategic calculation. In his view, the conflict’s true significance lies in how it advanced the Islamic Republic’s historic mission against Israel while reinforcing the unity of the Iranian people under the doctrine of wilayah.